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Egypt and the Velvet Revolutions (New Yorker)

The British historian Timothy Garton Ash, who's seen a few popular uprisings
over the past quarter century, writes this in an essay called "Velvet
Revolution in Past and Future," from his recent collection "Facts Are
Subversive":

> One might suggest that the best chances are to be found in semiauthoritarian
states that depend to a significant degree, politically, economically and, so
to speak, psychologically, on more democratic ones--and most especially when
the foreign states with the most passive influence or active leverage on them
are Western democracies.

When the people rise up, there's no guarantee they'll succeed. Just ask a
Burmese or an Iranian. Egypt's revolution has a number of counts against it,
the main one being the hollow core where Egyptian civil society ought to be--
the absence of institutions, groups, and leaders that could shape this massive
expression of popular will into an organized counterforce to the regime's
violence, with the means to reach deep into the military hierarchy and a
strategy for victory. Instead, Mubarak systematically closed off that space,
so that he could say to the world: me or the Islamists, choose. In Burma in
2007, there was a similar void of opposition ...

New Yorker